KDFW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

28%

22%

21%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 30.6¢Risks 30.65u

ICONNO 69.3¢Risks 69.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +69.35u · ICON −69.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	7.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	35.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	5.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	27.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	31.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	21.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	19.8%	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	20.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	14.9%	20.4%	0.1%	14.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	19.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	22.6%	25.4%	11.3%	17.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	18.9%	15.1%	5.8%	13.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	21.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	14.5%	18.4%	9.0%	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	14.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	87.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	83.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	83.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	83.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	6%	72.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 88°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗