WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDFW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
49%
HRES
29%
WN2
24%
AIFS
20%
ICON
6%
Consensus
30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 27.5¢Risks 27.55u
VS
ICONNO 72.5¢Risks 72.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.45u · ICON −72.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 11:02
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:0020.2%48.8%23.8%28.8%6.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:0020.2%48.8%23.8%28.8%6.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0020.2%48.8%23.8%28.8%6.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0020.2%48.8%23.8%28.8%6.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:0020.2%48.8%23.8%28.8%6.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%87.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble49%86.4°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES29%82.9°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 224%82.6°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single20%81.7°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON6%71.3°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261025-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 87°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗