KDFW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

29%

24%

20%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.5¢Risks 27.55u

ICONNO 72.5¢Risks 72.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.45u · ICON −72.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	2.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	21.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	12.4%	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	17.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	13.4%	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	11.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.0%	22.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	15.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	4.0%	10.5%	0.3%	14.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	6.9%	12.0%	6.4%	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	5.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	87.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	86.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	82.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	82.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	71.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261025-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 87°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗