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KDFW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
13%
WN2
5%
EPS
5%
AIFS
4%
ICON
2%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 7.5¢Risks 3.75u
VS
ICONNO 92.5¢Risks 46.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.25u · ICON −46.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:27+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:27+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:27+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:4910-19 11:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:27+00:003.7%10.6%6.3%13.2%1.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:003.7%10.6%6.3%13.2%1.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:003.7%10.6%6.3%13.2%1.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:003.7%10.6%6.3%13.2%1.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:003.7%10.6%6.3%13.2%1.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:003.7%4.8%5.4%13.2%1.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend16%84.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES13%82.3°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%81.3°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%84.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single4%79.2°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON2%68.6°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗