WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDFW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
13%
WN2
5%
EPS
5%
AIFS
4%
ICON
2%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 7.5¢Risks 3.75u
VS
ICONNO 92.5¢Risks 46.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.25u · ICON −46.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-11 12:0010-15 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSIFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%——0.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.1%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.9%——2.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.1%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.2%——1.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.1%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.7%——3.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.4%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.2%——2.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.3%——2.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.1%——6.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:002.9%——2.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:003.5%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0010.2%——4.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:002.8%——6.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:001.1%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.6%——7.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.6%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.8%——10.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.7%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:006.0%—4.7%4.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.8%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:002.0%—1.2%6.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.8%—0.7%—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:002.3%—0.1%5.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:002.8%—0.8%—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.8%0.0%3.4%3.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——4.4%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend16%84.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES13%82.3°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%81.3°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%84.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single4%79.2°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON2%68.6°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗