KDFW / Fri Nov 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Nov 13 · 04:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

33%

33%

24%

16%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

WN2NO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.10u · WN2 −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-11-13T04:12:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-11-08T16:56:58+00:00	34.9%	88.6%	51.9%	38.4%	6.9%
2026-11-08T17:42:20+00:00	34.9%	88.6%	51.9%	38.4%	6.9%
2026-11-08T18:27:30+00:00	34.9%	88.6%	51.9%	38.4%	6.9%
2026-11-08T19:12:35+00:00	34.9%	88.6%	51.9%	38.4%	6.9%
2026-11-08T19:58:09+00:00	9.6%	88.6%	51.9%	38.4%	29.5%
2026-11-08T20:43:52+00:00	9.6%	88.6%	51.9%	38.4%	29.5%
2026-11-08T21:29:03+00:00	9.6%	88.6%	51.9%	38.4%	29.5%
2026-11-08T22:14:13+00:00	9.6%	88.6%	51.9%	38.4%	29.5%
2026-11-08T22:59:21+00:00	9.6%	88.6%	51.9%	57.6%	29.5%
2026-11-08T23:44:27+00:00	9.6%	88.6%	51.0%	57.6%	29.5%
2026-11-09T00:29:35+00:00	9.6%	88.6%	51.0%	57.6%	29.5%
2026-11-09T01:14:55+00:00	9.6%	88.6%	51.0%	57.6%	29.5%
2026-11-09T02:00:08+00:00	46.7%	88.6%	51.0%	57.6%	29.5%
2026-11-09T02:45:17+00:00	46.7%	88.6%	51.0%	57.6%	29.5%
2026-11-09T03:30:23+00:00	46.7%	88.6%	51.0%	57.6%	29.5%
2026-11-12T04:35:17+00:00	45.0%	99.6%	44.9%	51.0%	85.3%
2026-11-12T05:21:17+00:00	45.0%	99.6%	48.7%	51.0%	85.3%
2026-11-12T06:06:23+00:00	45.0%	99.6%	48.7%	51.0%	85.3%
2026-11-12T06:51:32+00:00	45.0%	99.6%	48.7%	51.0%	85.3%
2026-11-12T07:36:52+00:00	29.1%	99.6%	48.7%	51.0%	33.4%
2026-11-12T08:22:01+00:00	29.1%	99.6%	48.7%	51.0%	33.4%
2026-11-12T09:07:14+00:00	29.1%	99.6%	48.7%	51.0%	33.4%
2026-11-12T09:52:24+00:00	29.1%	99.6%	48.7%	51.0%	33.4%
2026-11-12T10:39:43+00:00	29.1%	99.6%	48.7%	46.8%	33.4%
2026-11-12T11:26:12+00:00	29.1%	99.6%	27.9%	46.8%	33.4%
2026-11-12T12:11:43+00:00	29.1%	99.9%	27.9%	46.8%	33.4%
2026-11-12T12:56:51+00:00	29.1%	99.9%	27.9%	46.8%	33.4%
2026-11-12T13:42:00+00:00	14.7%	99.9%	27.9%	46.8%	33.4%
2026-11-12T14:34:41+00:00	14.7%	99.9%	27.9%	46.8%	33.4%
2026-11-12T15:19:52+00:00	14.7%	99.9%	27.9%	46.8%	33.4%
2026-11-12T16:06:09+00:00	14.7%	99.9%	27.9%	46.8%	33.4%
2026-11-12T16:52:06+00:00	14.7%	99.9%	27.9%	46.7%	33.4%
2026-11-12T17:37:46+00:00	14.7%	99.9%	8.9%	46.7%	33.4%
2026-11-12T18:23:14+00:00	14.7%	99.9%	8.9%	46.7%	33.4%
2026-11-12T19:08:23+00:00	14.7%	99.9%	8.9%	46.7%	33.4%
2026-11-12T19:53:45+00:00	24.7%	99.9%	8.9%	46.7%	33.4%
2026-11-12T20:39:05+00:00	24.7%	99.9%	8.9%	46.7%	33.4%
2026-11-12T21:24:40+00:00	24.7%	99.9%	8.9%	46.7%	33.4%
2026-11-12T22:10:18+00:00	24.7%	99.9%	8.9%	46.7%	33.4%
2026-11-12T22:55:41+00:00	24.7%	99.9%	8.9%	23.5%	33.4%
2026-11-12T23:40:51+00:00	24.7%	99.9%	15.9%	24.2%	33.4%
2026-11-13T00:26:08+00:00	24.7%	99.9%	15.9%	24.2%	33.4%
2026-11-13T01:11:27+00:00	24.7%	99.9%	15.9%	24.2%	33.4%
2026-11-13T01:56:50+00:00	32.8%	99.9%	15.9%	24.2%	33.4%
2026-11-13T02:42:17+00:00	32.8%	99.9%	15.9%	24.2%	33.4%
2026-11-13T03:27:32+00:00	32.8%	99.9%	15.9%	24.2%	33.4%
2026-11-13T04:12:43+00:00	32.8%	99.9%	15.9%	24.2%	33.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	78.9°F	3.4°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	70.0°F	2.7°F	2026-11-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.2°F	2026-11-13 03:00	Pending
ICON	33%	67.0°F	3.5°F	2026-11-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	66.8°F	3.8°F	2026-11-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-11-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	65.6°F	2.9°F	2026-11-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261113-TMAX-GE69
Opened Nov 08 · 16:56 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 69°F · Fri Nov 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗