KDFW / Fri Nov 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Nov 13 · 04:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

33%

33%

24%

16%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

WN2NO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.10u · WN2 −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-11-13T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-29T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-30T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-30T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-30T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-30T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-31T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-31T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-31T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-31T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-01T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-11-01T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-01T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-11-01T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-02T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-11-02T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-02T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-11-02T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-11-03T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-03T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-11-03T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-11-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-04T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	72.4%
2026-11-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	80.7%	—	—	72.0%
2026-11-05T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-11-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	23.6%	—	—	71.1%
2026-11-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-11-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.8%	1.9%	—	52.0%	62.0%
2026-11-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-11-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	27.5%	4.2%	1.9%	—	44.4%
2026-11-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-11-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	24.3%	4.1%	4.6%	—	56.6%
2026-11-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-11-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	89.7%	4.2%	12.2%	—	53.0%
2026-11-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	2.6%	—	—	23.5%
2026-11-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	1.0%	9.7%	82.6%	—	44.4%
2026-11-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	52.4%
2026-11-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	10.4%	1.6%	31.5%	—	20.7%
2026-11-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	4.9%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-11-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	9.0%	9.7%	19.6%	—	57.0%
2026-11-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	7.8%	45.5%	—	—	57.1%
2026-11-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	1.4%	93.4%	25.9%	—	39.1%
2026-11-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	9.2%	71.6%	—	—	31.8%
2026-11-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	15.3%	85.8%	20.3%	—	31.3%
2026-11-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	55.0%	74.3%	—	—	21.1%
2026-11-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	56.1%	92.2%	9.0%	—	12.3%
2026-11-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	85.0%	92.0%	—	—	19.8%
2026-11-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	75.3%	91.0%	7.7%	—	15.5%
2026-11-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	84.6%	83.2%	16.8%	—	19.8%
2026-11-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	86.6%	84.0%	19.9%	—	21.5%
2026-11-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	91.3%	84.0%	20.8%	—	26.3%
2026-11-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	45.0%	56.2%	11.2%	24.6%	15.9%
2026-11-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	36.1%	52.6%	5.3%	—	4.0%
2026-11-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	44.6%	43.3%	4.0%	28.4%	4.3%
2026-11-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	37.7%	45.8%	8.1%	—	9.8%
2026-11-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	50.0%	52.9%	10.2%	54.3%	24.5%
2026-11-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	57.5%	44.0%	9.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	78.9°F	3.4°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	70.0°F	2.7°F	2026-11-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.2°F	2026-11-13 03:00	Pending
ICON	33%	67.0°F	3.5°F	2026-11-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	66.8°F	3.8°F	2026-11-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-11-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	65.6°F	2.9°F	2026-11-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261113-TMAX-GE69
Opened Nov 08 · 16:56 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 69°F · Fri Nov 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗