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KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
79%
WN2
77%
EPS
71%
AIFS
66%
HRES
65%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 71.9¢Risks 35.95u
VS
HRESNO 28.1¢Risks 14.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +14.05u · HRES −14.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-11T11:19:51+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-11T15:11:41+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-11T11:19:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T15:11:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.2% · 2026-10-11T11:19:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.2% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.2% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.2% · 2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-11T15:11:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T11:19:51+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T15:11:41+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00ICON: 79.2% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00ICON: 79.2% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00ICON: 79.2% · 2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00ICON: 79.2% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00ICON: 79.2% · 2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00ICON: 79.1% · 2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:00ICON: 79.1% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00ICON: 79.1% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00ICON: 79.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00ICON: 79.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00ICON: 79.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:0010-11 11:1910-11 19:4310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T11:19:51+00:0058.5%69.1%74.2%91.7%—
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:0058.5%69.1%74.2%91.7%—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:0058.5%69.1%74.2%91.7%—
2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:0081.5%69.1%74.2%91.7%—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:0081.4%69.1%74.1%91.7%—
2026-10-11T15:11:41+00:0081.4%70.9%74.1%91.7%—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:0081.4%70.9%74.1%91.7%—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:0081.4%70.9%74.1%91.7%—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:0081.4%70.9%79.1%91.7%—
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:0081.4%70.9%79.1%91.7%—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:0081.4%70.9%79.1%91.7%—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:0063.3%70.9%79.1%64.7%79.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:0063.3%70.9%79.1%64.7%79.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:0063.3%70.9%79.1%64.7%79.2%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:0063.3%70.9%79.1%64.7%79.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:0063.3%70.9%79.1%64.7%79.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:33+00:0063.3%70.9%76.6%64.7%79.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:0063.3%70.9%76.6%64.7%79.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:0063.3%70.9%76.6%64.7%79.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:0066.0%70.9%76.6%64.7%79.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:0066.0%70.9%76.6%64.7%79.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:0066.0%70.9%76.6%64.7%79.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON79%69.5°F9.9°F2026-10-11 12:000.0437
WeatherNext 277%65.1°F5.0°F2026-10-11 12:000.0548
IFS Ensemble71%64.7°F5.8°F2026-10-11 00:000.0847
AIFS Single66%63.8°F5.6°F2026-10-11 18:000.1156
IFS HRES65%63.9°F6.3°F2026-10-11 12:000.1246
National Blend52%62.0°F8.8°F2026-10-11 06:000.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗