KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

77%

71%

66%

65%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 71.9¢Risks 35.95u

HRESNO 28.1¢Risks 14.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +14.05u · HRES −14.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	3.2%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	73.1%	34.9%	1.4%	—	71.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	91.8%	57.3%	62.3%	—	71.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	84.5%	64.2%	66.3%	—	74.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	78.8%	26.8%	64.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	79.9%	63.9%	54.2%	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	61.8%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	72.4%	74.5%	44.8%	—	56.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	70.6%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	71.8%	74.1%	38.2%	—	55.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	72.4%	67.4%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	73.7%	66.1%	51.0%	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	74.3%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	73.2%	68.8%	53.1%	—	62.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	67.4%	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	67.9%	65.9%	54.4%	—	64.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	62.2%	68.5%	0.0%	—	64.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	57.0%	74.9%	64.8%	—	71.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	63.0%	76.6%	61.9%	—	70.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	63.4%	80.9%	64.6%	80.9%	72.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	67.5%	83.4%	61.5%	—	68.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	60.6%	84.3%	61.9%	81.8%	69.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	79.9%	85.3%	59.7%	—	74.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	88.5%	91.1%	68.2%	94.9%	82.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	90.8%	80.8%	53.0%	—	64.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	91.1%	84.8%	48.4%	96.3%	76.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	98.9%	94.7%	81.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	79%	69.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0437
WeatherNext 2	77%	65.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0548
IFS Ensemble	71%	64.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0847
AIFS Single	66%	63.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1156
IFS HRES	65%	63.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1246
National Blend	52%	62.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗