KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

78%

63%

60%

24%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.65u · ICON −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:44+00:00	83.3%	63.3%	85.7%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	83.3%	63.3%	85.7%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	83.3%	63.3%	82.3%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	83.3%	63.3%	82.3%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	83.3%	63.3%	82.3%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	83.3%	63.3%	82.3%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	81.3%	63.3%	82.3%	59.6%	23.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	81.3%	63.3%	82.3%	59.6%	23.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	81.3%	63.3%	82.3%	59.6%	23.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	81.3%	63.3%	82.3%	59.6%	23.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	81.3%	63.3%	78.5%	59.6%	23.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	81.3%	63.3%	78.5%	59.6%	23.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	81.3%	63.3%	78.5%	59.6%	23.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	81.3%	63.3%	78.5%	59.6%	23.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	86.8%	63.3%	78.5%	59.6%	23.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	86.8%	63.3%	78.5%	59.6%	23.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	86.8%	63.3%	78.5%	59.6%	23.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	67.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0174
WeatherNext 2	78%	65.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0462
IFS Ensemble	63%	64.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1347
IFS HRES	60%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1632
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
ICON	24%	61.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5791

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗