KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

78%

63%

60%

24%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.65u · ICON −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	60.4%	23.0%	0.6%	—	58.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	84.8%	42.7%	47.8%	—	58.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	73.6%	49.2%	51.5%	—	61.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	65.5%	15.4%	48.4%	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	66.2%	47.5%	37.7%	—	39.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	44.9%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	56.1%	58.7%	28.4%	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	53.6%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	54.6%	57.3%	22.3%	—	37.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	54.7%	49.0%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	55.8%	47.1%	32.1%	—	39.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	56.0%	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	54.1%	49.0%	33.0%	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	46.8%	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	46.7%	44.5%	33.1%	—	43.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	40.0%	46.6%	0.0%	—	42.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	34.1%	53.5%	41.9%	—	48.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	39.3%	54.8%	38.1%	—	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	38.9%	59.9%	40.1%	59.9%	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	42.3%	62.7%	36.1%	—	43.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	34.3%	63.2%	35.6%	59.3%	43.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	55.6%	63.7%	32.5%	—	48.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	68.2%	73.2%	40.0%	81.8%	58.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	71.5%	54.5%	24.8%	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	71.0%	59.4%	20.3%	83.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	92.7%	78.5%	53.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	67.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0174
WeatherNext 2	78%	65.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0462
IFS Ensemble	63%	64.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1347
IFS HRES	60%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1632
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
ICON	24%	61.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5791

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗