KDSM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

40%

30%

26%

14%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.60u

EPSNO 66.4¢Risks 66.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.40u · EPS −66.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:21+00:00	61.9%	32.5%	53.0%	50.0%	21.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	56.4%	17.0%	45.2%	26.4%	61.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	56.4%	17.0%	45.2%	26.4%	61.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	56.4%	17.0%	52.4%	26.4%	61.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	56.4%	17.0%	52.4%	26.4%	61.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	56.4%	17.0%	52.4%	26.4%	61.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00	61.0%	17.0%	52.4%	36.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	61.0%	17.0%	52.4%	36.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	61.0%	17.0%	52.4%	36.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	61.0%	17.0%	52.4%	36.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	61.0%	17.0%	52.4%	36.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	61.0%	17.0%	43.2%	36.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	61.0%	11.9%	43.2%	36.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	61.0%	11.9%	43.2%	36.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	41.2%	12.0%	43.2%	36.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	41.2%	12.0%	43.2%	36.9%	63.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	47.8%	10.0%	59.3%	38.1%	57.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	47.8%	10.0%	59.3%	38.1%	57.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	47.8%	10.0%	59.3%	38.1%	57.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	47.8%	10.0%	59.3%	38.1%	57.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	48.4%	10.0%	59.3%	38.1%	52.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	48.4%	10.0%	59.3%	38.1%	52.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	48.4%	10.0%	59.3%	38.1%	52.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	48.4%	10.0%	59.3%	38.1%	52.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	48.4%	10.0%	59.3%	38.1%	52.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	48.4%	12.9%	56.8%	38.1%	52.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	48.4%	12.9%	56.8%	38.1%	52.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	48.4%	12.9%	56.8%	38.1%	52.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	45.2%	12.9%	56.8%	20.3%	52.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	45.2%	12.9%	56.8%	20.3%	52.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	45.2%	11.8%	56.8%	20.3%	52.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	45.2%	11.8%	56.8%	20.3%	52.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	45.2%	11.8%	56.8%	20.3%	52.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	45.2%	11.8%	68.7%	20.3%	52.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	45.2%	11.8%	68.7%	20.3%	52.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	45.2%	11.8%	68.7%	20.3%	52.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	46.8%	11.8%	68.7%	20.3%	41.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	46.8%	11.8%	68.7%	20.3%	41.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	46.8%	11.8%	68.7%	20.3%	41.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	46.8%	11.8%	68.7%	20.3%	41.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	46.8%	11.8%	68.7%	32.6%	41.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	46.8%	11.8%	61.5%	32.6%	41.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	46.8%	11.8%	61.5%	32.6%	41.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	46.8%	11.8%	61.5%	32.6%	41.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	50.0%	11.8%	61.5%	32.6%	41.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	50.0%	11.8%	61.5%	32.6%	41.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	50.0%	11.8%	61.5%	32.6%	41.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	50.0%	11.8%	61.5%	32.6%	41.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:46+00:00	53.5%	13.7%	60.6%	31.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	53.5%	13.7%	60.6%	31.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	53.5%	13.7%	54.3%	31.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	53.5%	13.7%	54.3%	31.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	53.5%	13.7%	54.3%	31.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	53.5%	13.7%	54.3%	31.6%	32.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	59.5%	13.7%	54.3%	30.2%	26.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	59.5%	13.7%	54.3%	30.2%	26.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	59.5%	13.7%	54.3%	30.2%	26.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	59.5%	13.7%	54.3%	30.2%	26.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	59.5%	13.7%	40.5%	30.2%	26.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	59.5%	13.7%	40.5%	30.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	59.5%	13.7%	40.5%	30.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	59.5%	13.7%	40.5%	30.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	53.5%	13.7%	40.5%	30.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	53.5%	13.7%	40.5%	30.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	53.5%	13.7%	40.5%	30.2%	26.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	74.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	73.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	26%	71.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	71.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗