KDSM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

72%

36%

32%

26%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.8¢Risks 50.80u

EPSNO 49.2¢Risks 49.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.20u · EPS −49.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	17.6%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	1.8%	22.8%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	38.2%	13.4%	0.0%	—	13.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	42.0%	33.7%	5.3%	—	21.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	33.0%	4.6%	17.4%	—	23.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	32.3%	5.9%	14.0%	—	16.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	20.1%	3.1%	13.4%	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	11.1%	26.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	19.6%	33.0%	11.3%	—	20.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	21.5%	31.8%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	13.4%	29.7%	11.9%	—	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	25.3%	32.6%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	14.2%	31.3%	12.6%	—	17.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	13.5%	27.4%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	21.2%	25.9%	9.4%	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	32.6%	22.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	29.2%	23.8%	7.3%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	33.6%	24.0%	0.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	28.9%	27.0%	5.1%	0.0%	12.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	46.4%	26.3%	5.5%	—	16.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	45.0%	20.8%	7.1%	75.4%	19.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	21.9%	7.2%	—	17.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	76.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	73.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	10%	72.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗