KDSM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

91%

59%

49%

32%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.6¢Risks 63.65u

EPSNO 36.4¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.35u · EPS −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	79.0%	26.4%	87.7%	42.6%	70.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	79.0%	26.4%	86.5%	42.6%	70.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	79.0%	26.4%	86.5%	42.6%	70.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	79.0%	26.4%	86.5%	42.6%	70.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	80.8%	26.4%	86.5%	42.6%	54.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	80.8%	26.4%	86.5%	42.6%	54.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	80.8%	26.4%	86.5%	42.6%	54.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	80.8%	26.4%	86.5%	42.6%	54.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	80.8%	26.4%	86.5%	42.6%	54.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	80.8%	17.3%	84.8%	42.6%	54.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	80.8%	17.3%	84.8%	42.6%	54.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	80.8%	17.3%	84.8%	42.6%	54.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	79.8%	17.3%	84.8%	47.6%	54.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	79.7%	17.3%	84.8%	47.6%	55.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	79.7%	16.0%	84.8%	47.6%	55.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	79.7%	15.9%	84.8%	47.6%	55.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	79.7%	15.9%	84.8%	47.6%	55.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	79.7%	15.9%	87.6%	47.6%	55.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	79.7%	15.9%	87.6%	47.6%	55.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	79.7%	15.9%	87.6%	47.6%	55.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	78.7%	15.9%	87.6%	47.6%	56.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	78.7%	15.9%	87.6%	47.6%	56.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	78.7%	15.9%	87.6%	47.6%	56.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	78.7%	15.9%	87.6%	47.6%	56.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	78.7%	15.9%	87.6%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	78.7%	15.9%	78.6%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	78.7%	15.9%	78.6%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	78.7%	15.9%	78.6%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	77.6%	15.9%	78.6%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	77.6%	15.9%	78.6%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	77.6%	15.9%	78.6%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	77.6%	15.9%	78.6%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:50+00:00	77.6%	15.9%	78.6%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	77.6%	15.9%	79.8%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	77.6%	15.9%	79.8%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	77.6%	15.9%	79.8%	49.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:30+00:00	81.8%	15.9%	79.8%	44.5%	40.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	81.8%	15.9%	79.8%	44.5%	40.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:38+00:00	81.8%	15.9%	79.8%	44.5%	40.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	81.8%	15.9%	79.8%	44.5%	40.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	81.8%	15.9%	79.8%	44.5%	40.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	81.8%	27.1%	77.5%	44.5%	40.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	81.8%	27.1%	77.5%	44.5%	40.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	81.8%	27.1%	77.5%	44.5%	40.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	79.0%	27.1%	77.5%	44.5%	40.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	79.0%	27.1%	77.5%	44.5%	40.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:03+00:00	80.2%	23.3%	72.0%	32.7%	30.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	80.2%	23.3%	80.9%	32.7%	30.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	80.2%	23.3%	80.9%	32.7%	30.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	80.2%	23.3%	80.9%	32.7%	30.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	80.2%	23.3%	80.9%	32.7%	30.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00	84.2%	23.3%	80.9%	37.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	84.2%	23.3%	80.9%	37.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	84.2%	23.3%	80.9%	37.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	84.2%	23.3%	80.9%	37.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	84.2%	23.1%	77.4%	37.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	84.2%	23.1%	77.4%	37.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:33+00:00	84.2%	23.1%	77.4%	37.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	84.2%	23.1%	77.4%	37.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	78.4%	23.1%	77.4%	37.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	79.6%	23.8%	75.7%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	79.6%	23.8%	84.6%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	79.6%	23.8%	84.6%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	79.6%	23.8%	84.6%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00	84.9%	23.8%	84.6%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	84.9%	23.8%	84.6%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	84.9%	23.8%	84.6%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	84.9%	23.8%	84.6%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00	84.9%	23.8%	84.6%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00	84.9%	26.5%	89.4%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	84.9%	26.5%	89.4%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	84.9%	26.5%	89.4%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	81.9%	26.5%	89.4%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	82.0%	26.5%	89.4%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	82.0%	27.4%	89.4%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	82.0%	27.4%	89.4%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	82.0%	27.4%	89.4%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	82.0%	27.4%	83.7%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	82.0%	27.4%	83.7%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	82.0%	27.4%	83.7%	44.6%	57.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	83.2%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	83.2%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	83.2%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	83.2%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	83.2%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	83.2%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	83.2%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	83.2%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	88.4%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	88.4%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	88.4%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	88.4%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	88.4%	27.4%	83.7%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	88.4%	27.4%	92.8%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	88.4%	27.4%	92.8%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	88.4%	27.4%	92.8%	31.9%	47.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00	90.9%	27.4%	92.8%	31.9%	57.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	90.9%	27.4%	92.8%	31.9%	57.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	90.9%	27.4%	92.8%	31.9%	57.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	90.9%	27.4%	92.8%	31.9%	57.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00	90.9%	32.0%	95.3%	49.0%	57.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	90.9%	32.0%	95.3%	49.0%	57.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	90.9%	32.0%	95.3%	49.0%	57.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	90.9%	32.0%	95.3%	49.0%	57.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:16+00:00	90.9%	31.9%	95.4%	49.0%	58.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	79.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	79.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	75.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	72.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗