KDSM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

91%

59%

49%

32%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.6¢Risks 63.65u

EPSNO 36.4¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.35u · EPS −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	51.3%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	0.2%	5.4%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	55.6%	3.0%	0.1%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	30.4%	50.7%	1.4%	—	24.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	30.9%	56.1%	6.8%	—	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	20.1%	54.8%	8.4%	—	23.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	56.5%	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	10.8%	51.7%	13.8%	—	24.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	23.9%	55.1%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	32.2%	53.5%	26.9%	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	24.2%	45.5%	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.6%	45.4%	13.4%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	42.5%	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	50.0%	40.4%	21.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	47.0%	24.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	39.8%	41.8%	19.7%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	62.5%	28.8%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	60.8%	39.2%	19.0%	80.2%	29.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	38.9%	0.0%	—	27.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	79.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	79.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	75.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	72.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗