KDSM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

74%

67%

37%

20%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.5¢Risks 51.55u

EPSNO 48.5¢Risks 48.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.45u · EPS −48.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:47+00:00	83.2%	25.6%	67.8%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	83.2%	25.6%	67.8%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	83.2%	25.6%	67.8%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	83.2%	25.6%	67.8%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	83.2%	25.6%	67.8%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	83.2%	25.6%	67.0%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	83.2%	22.5%	67.0%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00	83.2%	22.5%	67.0%	30.7%	8.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	74.8%	22.5%	66.8%	30.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	74.8%	22.5%	66.8%	30.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00	74.8%	19.8%	66.8%	30.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	74.8%	19.8%	66.8%	30.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	74.8%	19.8%	66.0%	30.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	74.8%	19.8%	66.0%	30.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	74.8%	19.8%	66.0%	30.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	74.8%	19.8%	66.0%	30.9%	8.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	75.3%	19.8%	66.0%	36.6%	67.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	75.3%	19.8%	66.0%	36.6%	67.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	75.3%	19.8%	66.0%	36.6%	67.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	75.3%	19.8%	66.0%	36.6%	67.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	75.3%	19.8%	83.3%	36.6%	67.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	75.3%	19.8%	83.3%	36.6%	67.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	75.3%	19.8%	83.3%	36.6%	67.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	73.6%	19.8%	83.3%	36.6%	67.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	73.6%	19.8%	83.3%	36.6%	67.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	73.6%	19.8%	83.3%	36.6%	67.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	73.6%	19.8%	83.3%	36.6%	67.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	80.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	79.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	67%	79.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	73.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	71.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	71.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗