KDSM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

74%

67%

37%

20%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.5¢Risks 51.55u

EPSNO 48.5¢Risks 48.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.45u · EPS −48.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	44.8%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	0.1%	3.8%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	48.6%	2.0%	0.1%	—	18.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	24.3%	43.4%	0.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	24.5%	48.5%	4.6%	—	23.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	14.9%	46.8%	5.7%	—	17.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	48.4%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	7.4%	43.4%	9.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	17.8%	46.6%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	24.8%	44.8%	20.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	17.8%	36.8%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	23.0%	36.4%	9.0%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	33.5%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	40.4%	31.3%	14.7%	—	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	37.2%	17.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	30.3%	32.1%	13.4%	—	12.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	52.1%	20.5%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	29.2%	12.5%	71.8%	20.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	28.6%	0.0%	—	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	80.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	79.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	67%	79.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	73.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	71.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	71.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗