KDSM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

86%

84%

64%

40%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.8¢Risks 67.85u

EPSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.15u · EPS −32.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:03+00:00	75.1%	28.1%	68.8%	40.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	75.1%	28.1%	77.7%	40.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	75.1%	28.1%	77.7%	40.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	75.1%	28.1%	77.7%	40.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	75.1%	28.1%	77.7%	40.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00	78.7%	28.1%	77.7%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	78.7%	28.1%	77.7%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	78.7%	28.1%	77.7%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	78.7%	28.1%	77.7%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	78.7%	22.1%	81.5%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	78.7%	22.1%	81.5%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:33+00:00	78.7%	22.1%	81.5%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	78.7%	22.1%	81.5%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	78.1%	22.3%	81.6%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:50+00:00	78.1%	22.3%	81.6%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	78.1%	22.0%	81.6%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	78.1%	22.0%	81.6%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	78.1%	22.0%	81.0%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	78.1%	22.0%	81.0%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	78.1%	22.0%	81.0%	33.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	77.6%	22.0%	81.0%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	77.6%	22.0%	81.0%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	77.6%	22.0%	81.0%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	77.6%	22.0%	81.0%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	77.6%	22.0%	81.0%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	77.6%	22.0%	85.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	77.6%	22.0%	85.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	77.6%	22.0%	85.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	78.7%	22.0%	85.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	78.7%	22.0%	85.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	78.7%	22.0%	85.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	78.7%	22.0%	85.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:50+00:00	78.7%	22.0%	85.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	78.7%	22.0%	86.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	78.7%	22.0%	86.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	78.7%	22.0%	86.3%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00	83.9%	22.0%	86.3%	47.2%	73.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	83.9%	22.0%	86.3%	47.2%	73.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	83.9%	22.0%	86.3%	47.2%	73.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	83.9%	22.0%	86.3%	47.2%	73.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00	83.9%	22.0%	86.3%	47.2%	73.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00	83.9%	28.5%	94.3%	47.2%	73.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	83.9%	28.5%	94.3%	47.2%	73.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	83.9%	28.5%	94.3%	47.2%	73.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	76.0%	28.5%	94.3%	47.2%	73.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	76.1%	28.5%	94.3%	47.2%	73.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	76.1%	29.3%	94.3%	47.2%	73.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	76.1%	29.3%	94.3%	47.2%	73.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	76.1%	29.3%	94.3%	47.2%	73.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	76.1%	29.3%	90.6%	47.2%	73.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	76.1%	29.3%	90.6%	47.2%	73.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	76.1%	29.3%	90.6%	47.2%	73.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	79.7%	29.3%	90.6%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	79.7%	29.3%	90.6%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	79.7%	29.3%	90.6%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	79.7%	29.3%	90.6%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	79.7%	29.3%	90.6%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	79.7%	29.3%	91.7%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	79.7%	29.3%	91.7%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	79.7%	29.3%	91.7%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	81.9%	29.3%	91.7%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	81.9%	29.3%	91.7%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	81.9%	29.3%	91.7%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	81.9%	29.3%	91.7%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	81.9%	29.3%	91.7%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	81.9%	29.3%	96.0%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	81.9%	29.3%	96.0%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	81.9%	29.3%	96.0%	37.8%	66.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00	83.7%	29.3%	96.0%	37.8%	85.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	83.7%	29.3%	96.0%	37.8%	85.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	83.7%	29.3%	96.0%	37.8%	85.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	83.7%	29.3%	96.0%	37.8%	85.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00	83.7%	40.1%	95.7%	64.1%	85.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	83.7%	40.1%	95.7%	64.1%	85.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	83.7%	40.1%	95.7%	64.1%	85.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	83.7%	40.1%	95.7%	64.1%	85.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	83.8%	40.0%	95.7%	64.1%	85.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	83.8%	40.0%	95.7%	64.1%	85.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	80.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	79.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	79.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	76.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	73.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	37%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗