KDSM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

86%

84%

64%

40%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

EPSNO 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.20u · EPS −32.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	68.2%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	0.1%	63.3%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	1.4%	70.8%	0.1%	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	42.0%	31.0%	33.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	55.3%	59.8%	28.9%	—	20.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	59.5%	49.2%	15.9%	—	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	49.2%	44.2%	20.7%	—	24.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	36.6%	66.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	77.9%	59.6%	27.7%	71.6%	43.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	72.1%	—	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	80.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	79.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	79.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	76.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	73.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	26%	73.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗