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KDSM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
91%
HRES
84%
EPS
70%
WN2
60%
AIFS
36%
Consensus
67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 63.5¢Risks 63.55u
VS
AIFSNO 36.5¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +36.45u · AIFS −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00AIFS Single: 96.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00AIFS Single: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 83.0% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00IFS HRES: 84.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00ICON: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:0077.6%69.6%74.0%83.0%89.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:0077.6%69.6%74.0%83.0%89.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:0077.6%69.6%74.0%83.0%89.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:0077.6%69.6%43.2%83.0%89.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:0077.6%69.6%43.2%83.0%89.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:0077.6%69.6%43.2%83.0%89.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:0096.8%69.6%43.2%84.5%90.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:0096.8%69.6%43.2%84.5%90.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:0096.8%69.6%43.2%84.5%90.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:0096.8%69.6%43.2%84.5%90.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:0096.8%69.6%43.2%84.5%90.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:0096.8%69.6%60.1%84.5%90.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:0096.8%69.6%60.1%84.5%90.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:0096.8%69.6%60.1%84.5%90.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:0036.2%69.6%60.1%84.5%90.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:0036.2%69.6%60.1%84.5%90.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0036.2%69.6%60.1%84.5%90.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON91%78.0°F7.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS HRES84%75.2°F6.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble70%71.3°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 260%69.7°F4.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast53%69.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
National Blend53%69.0°F7.8°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single36%66.6°F5.4°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗