KDSM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

84%

70%

60%

36%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

AIFSNO 36.5¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +36.45u · AIFS −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	18.1%	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	74.3%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	3.5%	2.0%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	67.7%	17.1%	8.2%	—	52.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	83.5%	31.7%	60.8%	—	58.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	87.1%	22.2%	39.4%	—	53.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	71.9%	42.1%	71.2%	97.7%	42.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	7.9%	—	—	36.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	78.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	75.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	71.3°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	69.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	69.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	66.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗