KDSM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

73%

60%

40%

33%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

AIFSNO 43.7¢Risks 43.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.70u · AIFS −43.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	61.0%	60.3%	86.8%	62.8%	24.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	61.0%	60.3%	86.8%	62.8%	24.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:33+00:00	61.0%	60.3%	86.8%	62.8%	24.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	61.0%	60.3%	86.8%	62.8%	24.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	9.3%	60.3%	86.8%	62.8%	23.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:50+00:00	9.3%	60.3%	86.8%	62.8%	23.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	9.3%	60.4%	86.8%	62.8%	23.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	9.3%	60.4%	86.8%	62.8%	23.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	9.3%	60.4%	88.0%	62.8%	23.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	9.3%	60.4%	88.0%	62.8%	23.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	9.3%	60.4%	88.0%	62.8%	23.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	52.8%	60.4%	88.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	52.8%	60.4%	88.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	52.8%	60.4%	88.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	52.8%	60.4%	88.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	52.8%	60.4%	88.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	52.8%	60.4%	80.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	52.8%	60.4%	80.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	52.8%	60.4%	80.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	32.6%	60.4%	80.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	32.6%	60.4%	80.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	32.6%	60.4%	80.0%	40.2%	73.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	32.6%	60.4%	80.0%	40.2%	73.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	73.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	73%	75.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	70.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	67.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	66.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗