KDSM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

73%

60%

40%

33%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

AIFSNO 43.7¢Risks 43.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.70u · AIFS −43.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	14.3%	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	68.8%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	2.4%	1.3%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	61.1%	13.0%	5.8%	—	45.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	78.5%	25.4%	53.6%	—	51.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	82.6%	16.9%	32.3%	—	45.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	64.8%	34.5%	64.1%	96.4%	35.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	5.3%	—	—	29.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	73.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	73%	75.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	70.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	67.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	66.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗