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KDSM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
88%
AIFS
65%
EPS
56%
WN2
35%
HRES
15%
Consensus
50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 51.4¢Risks 51.45u
VS
HRESNO 48.6¢Risks 48.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.55u · HRES −48.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 44.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 14.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00IFS HRES: 14.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 14.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 14.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00ICON: 90.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00ICON: 90.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00ICON: 90.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00ICON: 90.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00ICON: 90.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:0033.2%74.4%13.2%44.4%90.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:0033.2%74.4%13.2%44.4%90.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:0033.2%74.4%5.0%44.4%90.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:0033.2%74.4%5.0%44.4%90.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0033.2%74.4%5.0%44.4%90.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:0065.1%74.4%5.0%44.4%88.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0065.1%74.4%5.0%44.4%88.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0065.1%74.4%5.0%44.4%88.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0065.1%74.4%5.0%44.4%88.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:0065.1%55.8%35.0%14.8%88.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0065.1%55.8%35.0%14.8%88.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0065.1%55.8%35.0%14.8%88.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:0065.1%55.8%35.0%14.8%88.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON88%73.9°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single65%67.6°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble56%66.9°F9.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend43%64.0°F8.9°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 235%63.7°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES15%58.6°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗