KDSM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

65%

56%

35%

15%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 51.4¢Risks 51.45u

HRESNO 48.6¢Risks 48.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.55u · HRES −48.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	26.7%	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	5.2%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	4.2%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	25.4%	86.5%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	92.8%	10.2%	8.2%	—	45.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	81.1%	0.8%	70.3%	97.1%	12.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	73.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	67.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	66.9°F	9.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	64.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	63.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	58.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗