KDSM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

24%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.7¢Risks 26.70u

HRESNO 73.3¢Risks 73.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.30u · HRES −73.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	17.4%	28.1%	10.4%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	17.4%	28.1%	10.4%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	17.4%	28.1%	10.4%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	17.4%	28.1%	10.4%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00	17.4%	28.1%	10.4%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:55+00:00	17.4%	30.9%	9.5%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	17.4%	30.9%	9.5%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	17.4%	30.9%	9.5%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	6.3%	30.9%	9.5%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	6.3%	30.9%	9.4%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	6.3%	31.4%	9.4%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	6.3%	31.4%	9.4%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	6.3%	31.4%	9.4%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	6.3%	31.4%	0.5%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	6.3%	31.4%	0.5%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	6.3%	31.4%	0.5%	20.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	71.1%	31.4%	0.5%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	71.1%	31.4%	0.5%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	71.1%	31.4%	0.5%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	71.1%	31.4%	0.5%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	71.1%	31.4%	0.5%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	71.1%	31.4%	0.4%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	71.1%	31.4%	0.4%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	71.1%	31.4%	0.4%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	3.4%	31.4%	0.4%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	3.4%	31.4%	0.4%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	3.4%	31.4%	0.4%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00	3.4%	31.4%	0.4%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	3.4%	31.4%	0.4%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	3.4%	31.4%	0.1%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	3.4%	31.4%	0.1%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	3.4%	31.4%	0.1%	8.3%	68.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00	13.7%	31.4%	0.1%	8.3%	52.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	13.7%	31.4%	0.1%	8.3%	52.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	13.7%	31.4%	0.1%	8.3%	52.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	13.7%	31.4%	0.1%	8.3%	52.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00	13.7%	24.5%	1.8%	1.2%	52.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	13.7%	24.5%	1.8%	1.2%	52.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	13.7%	24.5%	1.8%	1.2%	52.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	13.7%	24.5%	1.8%	1.2%	52.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	52%	73.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	66.9°F	9.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	64.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	67.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	63.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	58.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗