KDSM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

24%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.7¢Risks 26.70u

HRESNO 73.3¢Risks 73.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.30u · HRES −73.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	3.3%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	2.2%	40.0%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	52.1%	0.4%	0.2%	—	6.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	27.9%	0.0%	17.5%	66.3%	0.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	52%	73.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	66.9°F	9.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	64.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	67.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	63.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	58.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗