KDTW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MILow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.6¢Risks 4.32u

EPSNO 91.3¢Risks 45.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.67u · EPS −45.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:51+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	8.2%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	8.2%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	8.2%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	8.2%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	8.2%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	8.2%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	8.2%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	8.2%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	7.5%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	7.5%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	21.0%	0.1%	7.5%	7.5%	17.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	19.0%	0.1%	7.5%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	19.0%	0.1%	7.5%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	19.0%	0.1%	7.5%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	19.0%	0.1%	7.5%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	19.0%	0.1%	7.5%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	19.0%	0.1%	9.0%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	19.0%	0.1%	9.0%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	19.0%	0.1%	9.0%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	9.0%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	9.0%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	9.0%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	9.0%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	9.0%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	23.2%	0.1%	10.7%	5.5%	10.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:48+00:00	17.2%	0.1%	10.7%	4.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	17.2%	0.1%	10.7%	4.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	17.2%	0.1%	10.7%	4.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	17.2%	0.1%	10.7%	4.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:57+00:00	17.2%	0.1%	10.7%	4.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	17.2%	0.1%	10.2%	4.0%	6.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	17%	36.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0296
National Blend	13%	37.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0169
NWS forecast	11%	37.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0125
WeatherNext 2	10%	37.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0104
ICON	7%	38.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0048
IFS HRES	4%	39.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0016
IFS Ensemble	<1%	39.8°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Detroit freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗