KDTW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MILow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.6¢Risks 4.32u

EPSNO 91.3¢Risks 45.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.67u · EPS −45.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	32.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	1.5%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	9.9%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	0.0%	0.7%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	11.9%	8.2%	2.6%	—	4.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	11.3%	2.8%	—	8.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	38.0%	44.7%	0.7%	—	7.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	2.9%	28.8%	1.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	3.3%	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	8.7%	21.9%	0.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	17.3%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	9.7%	17.2%	1.7%	—	9.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	19.0%	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	19.0%	4.8%	1.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	16.5%	4.2%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	17.7%	2.3%	0.6%	—	4.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	13.5%	1.5%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	9.4%	1.3%	1.1%	—	1.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	12.7%	2.6%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	6.6%	2.6%	0.5%	22.1%	3.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	10.2%	2.4%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	6.8%	1.1%	0.4%	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	5.5%	0.6%	0.3%	—	3.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	7.1%	0.4%	0.2%	13.7%	2.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	6.0%	0.2%	0.2%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	5.7%	0.1%	0.3%	10.7%	2.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	4.7%	0.2%	0.2%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	2.9%	0.1%	0.1%	7.8%	1.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	5.6%	0.0%	0.1%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.2%	0.0%	0.1%	10.2%	2.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	17%	36.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0296
National Blend	13%	37.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0169
NWS forecast	11%	37.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0125
WeatherNext 2	10%	37.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0104
ICON	7%	38.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0048
IFS HRES	4%	39.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0016
IFS Ensemble	<1%	39.8°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Detroit freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗