KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

93%

86%

81%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.6¢Risks 44.30u

HRESNO 11.4¢Risks 5.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.70u · HRES −5.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:11+00:00	40.1%	82.1%	91.9%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	40.1%	82.1%	91.9%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	40.1%	82.1%	91.9%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	40.1%	82.1%	91.9%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:53+00:00	40.1%	82.1%	91.9%	89.4%	—
2026-10-12T04:01:29+00:00	94.2%	71.3%	92.1%	91.5%	80.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	94.2%	71.3%	92.1%	91.5%	80.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	94.2%	71.3%	94.7%	91.5%	80.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	94.2%	71.3%	94.7%	91.5%	80.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	94.2%	71.3%	94.7%	91.5%	80.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:25+00:00	93.7%	71.3%	94.7%	81.2%	92.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	93.7%	71.3%	94.7%	81.2%	92.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	93.7%	71.3%	94.7%	81.2%	92.9%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	93.7%	71.3%	94.7%	81.2%	92.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	93.7%	71.3%	94.7%	81.2%	92.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00	93.7%	71.3%	96.1%	81.2%	92.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	93.7%	86.2%	96.1%	81.2%	92.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00	93.7%	86.2%	96.1%	81.2%	92.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	94.4%	86.2%	96.1%	81.2%	92.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	94.3%	85.8%	96.0%	81.2%	92.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	64.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0016
AIFS Single	94%	64.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0032
ICON	93%	66.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0050
IFS Ensemble	86%	61.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0202
IFS HRES	81%	62.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0353
National Blend	65%	59.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1253
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗