KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

93%

86%

81%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.6¢Risks 44.30u

HRESNO 11.4¢Risks 5.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.70u · HRES −5.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	2.7%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	9.8%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	3.0%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	3.2%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	76.5%	41.6%	63.1%	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	89.4%	64.3%	79.5%	—	70.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	60.6%	71.1%	81.6%	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	93.6%	81.1%	84.1%	—	77.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	10.2%	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	92.0%	89.5%	80.5%	—	78.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	75.4%	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	87.8%	90.6%	82.8%	—	68.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	85.0%	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	81.6%	88.1%	84.0%	—	69.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	77.6%	90.8%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.3%	76.8%	90.2%	84.1%	—	82.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	81.7%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	83.0%	94.5%	90.1%	—	87.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	77.2%	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	84.5%	89.6%	89.6%	—	87.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	79.4%	87.1%	0.1%	—	89.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	76.7%	93.9%	89.0%	—	89.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	81.7%	94.5%	88.0%	—	88.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	77.3%	96.0%	87.6%	51.2%	88.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	74.1%	96.3%	85.7%	—	88.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	74.9%	97.4%	83.5%	52.7%	88.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	84.5%	97.5%	84.5%	—	89.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	88.5%	98.8%	87.8%	89.2%	93.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	88.8%	99.3%	76.4%	—	85.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	87.5%	99.5%	75.0%	92.3%	92.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	98.6%	99.8%	92.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	64.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0016
AIFS Single	94%	64.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0032
ICON	93%	66.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0050
IFS Ensemble	86%	61.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0202
IFS HRES	81%	62.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0353
National Blend	65%	59.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1253
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗