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KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
95%
AIFS
87%
EPS
84%
HRES
74%
ICON
26%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 60.5¢Risks 60.55u
VS
ICONNO 39.5¢Risks 39.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.45u · ICON −39.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-13T04:15:58+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T08:03:33+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:04+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T04:15:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T08:03:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.6% · 2026-10-13T04:15:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-13T08:03:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.4% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.4% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.4% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.4% · 2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00IFS HRES: 77.7% · 2026-10-13T04:15:58+00:00IFS HRES: 77.7% · 2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00IFS HRES: 77.7% · 2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 77.7% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00IFS HRES: 77.7% · 2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-13T08:03:33+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00IFS HRES: 75.8% · 2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:00IFS HRES: 75.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 75.8% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS HRES: 75.8% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00IFS HRES: 75.8% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00IFS HRES: 75.8% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:04+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00ICON: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T04:15:58+00:00ICON: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00ICON: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00ICON: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00ICON: 60.7% · 2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:33+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00ICON: 89.0% · 2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00ICON: 88.9% · 2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00ICON: 88.9% · 2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T04:14:04+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:0010-13 04:1510-17 17:4010-18 07:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T04:15:58+00:0083.2%60.7%91.6%77.7%60.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:0083.2%60.7%92.3%77.7%60.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:0083.2%60.7%92.3%77.7%60.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:0083.2%60.7%92.3%77.7%60.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:0083.2%60.7%92.3%77.7%60.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:33+00:0083.1%60.7%92.3%71.6%89.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:0083.1%60.7%92.3%71.6%89.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:0083.1%60.7%92.3%71.6%89.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:0083.1%60.7%92.3%71.6%89.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:0083.1%74.5%85.4%71.6%89.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:0083.1%74.5%85.4%71.6%89.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:0083.1%74.5%85.4%71.6%89.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:0083.1%74.5%85.4%71.6%89.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:0080.7%74.5%85.2%71.6%88.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:0080.7%76.0%85.2%71.6%88.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:0086.2%83.8%94.3%75.8%29.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:0086.2%83.8%94.3%75.8%29.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:0086.2%83.8%92.6%75.8%29.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:0086.2%83.8%92.6%75.8%29.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:0086.2%83.8%92.6%75.8%29.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:0086.2%83.8%92.6%75.8%29.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:0086.2%83.8%92.6%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:0086.2%83.8%92.6%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:0086.2%83.8%92.6%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:0086.2%83.8%92.6%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:0086.2%83.8%93.9%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:0086.2%83.8%93.9%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:0086.2%83.8%93.9%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:0086.2%83.8%93.9%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:0086.8%83.8%93.9%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:0086.8%83.8%93.9%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:0086.8%83.8%93.9%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:04+00:0086.8%83.8%93.9%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:0086.8%83.8%95.4%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:0086.8%83.8%95.4%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:0086.8%83.8%95.4%74.1%25.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:0086.8%83.8%95.4%74.1%25.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 295%64.4°F2.9°F2026-10-17 18:000.0021
AIFS Single87%63.9°F3.9°F2026-10-17 18:000.0174
IFS Ensemble84%62.6°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0262
IFS HRES74%61.9°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:000.0671
NWS forecast59%60.0°F2.1°F2026-10-18 03:000.1665
National Blend59%60.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 00:000.1697
ICON26%57.2°F3.5°F2026-10-17 12:000.5520

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗