KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

87%

84%

74%

26%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.5¢Risks 60.55u

ICONNO 39.5¢Risks 39.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.45u · ICON −39.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	57.7%	23.0%	42.3%	—	50.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	75.7%	42.7%	60.8%	—	49.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	38.0%	49.2%	62.7%	—	51.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	82.1%	61.0%	65.5%	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	3.0%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	78.1%	73.5%	59.1%	—	56.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	51.7%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	69.3%	74.5%	61.3%	—	43.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	64.1%	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	58.2%	68.6%	61.8%	—	42.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	51.9%	73.2%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	50.0%	71.3%	60.6%	—	57.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	56.0%	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	57.2%	79.5%	69.7%	—	64.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	47.9%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	57.6%	66.9%	66.9%	—	62.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.3%	48.9%	61.1%	0.0%	—	65.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	44.2%	74.9%	63.7%	—	64.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	75.6%	60.7%	—	61.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	42.6%	79.2%	58.7%	18.2%	59.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	37.3%	79.1%	53.9%	—	59.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	36.8%	82.7%	48.7%	17.3%	56.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	48.6%	81.8%	48.6%	—	58.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	54.3%	87.8%	52.9%	55.8%	66.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	53.0%	90.8%	33.8%	—	47.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	48.4%	91.7%	30.3%	59.4%	59.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	83.0%	95.5%	56.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	64.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0021
AIFS Single	87%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0174
IFS Ensemble	84%	62.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0262
IFS HRES	74%	61.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0671
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
ICON	26%	57.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5520

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗