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KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
20%
HRES
10%
AIFS
7%
WN2
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.2¢Risks 5.12u
VS
EPSNO 89.8¢Risks 44.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.88u · EPS −44.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:0010-11 23:2910-12 01:4510-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:004.5%0.8%2.2%9.5%19.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:004.5%0.8%2.2%9.5%19.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:004.5%0.8%2.2%9.5%19.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:007.1%0.8%2.2%9.5%19.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:007.1%0.8%2.2%9.5%19.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:007.1%0.8%2.2%9.5%19.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON20%65.1°F9.9°F2026-10-11 12:000.0388
IFS HRES10%65.2°F6.3°F2026-10-11 12:000.0090
AIFS Single7%65.3°F5.6°F2026-10-11 18:000.0050
National Blend2%56.0°F8.8°F2026-10-11 06:000.0006
WeatherNext 22%63.5°F5.0°F2026-10-11 12:000.0005
IFS Ensemble<1%59.7°F5.7°F2026-10-11 00:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 11 · 23:29 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗