KDTW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

90%

63%

62%

33%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

ICONNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.70u · ICON −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:49+00:00	72.7%	51.3%	94.4%	73.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	72.7%	51.3%	94.4%	73.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	72.7%	51.3%	94.4%	73.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	72.7%	51.3%	94.4%	73.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	72.7%	51.3%	94.4%	73.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	72.7%	51.3%	94.4%	73.4%	68.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	85.3%	51.3%	94.4%	73.4%	74.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	85.3%	51.3%	94.4%	73.4%	74.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	85.3%	51.3%	94.4%	73.4%	74.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	85.3%	51.3%	94.4%	73.4%	74.6%
2026-10-14T10:33:24+00:00	85.3%	51.3%	94.4%	42.4%	74.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	85.3%	47.3%	89.7%	42.4%	74.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	85.3%	47.3%	89.7%	42.4%	74.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	85.3%	47.3%	89.7%	42.4%	74.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	80.7%	47.3%	89.7%	42.4%	74.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	80.7%	47.3%	89.7%	42.4%	74.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00	87.4%	63.5%	93.9%	51.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	87.4%	63.5%	95.2%	51.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	87.4%	63.5%	95.2%	51.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	87.4%	63.5%	95.2%	51.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00	89.0%	63.5%	95.2%	65.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	89.0%	63.5%	95.2%	65.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	89.0%	63.5%	95.2%	65.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	89.0%	63.5%	95.2%	65.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	89.0%	63.5%	95.2%	65.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	89.0%	68.9%	96.2%	65.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	89.0%	68.9%	96.2%	65.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	89.0%	68.9%	96.2%	65.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	88.1%	68.9%	96.2%	65.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	88.1%	68.5%	96.2%	65.2%	27.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	82.6%	68.0%	96.3%	67.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	82.6%	63.2%	96.3%	67.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	82.6%	63.2%	96.3%	67.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	82.6%	63.2%	94.7%	67.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	82.6%	63.2%	94.7%	67.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	82.6%	63.2%	94.7%	67.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	84.5%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	84.5%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	84.5%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	84.5%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	84.5%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	84.5%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	84.5%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	84.5%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	89.8%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	89.8%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	89.8%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	89.8%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:51+00:00	89.8%	63.2%	94.7%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	89.8%	63.2%	98.0%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	89.8%	63.2%	98.0%	61.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	89.8%	63.2%	98.0%	61.7%	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	68.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	64.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	64.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	33%	61.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗