KDTW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

90%

63%

62%

33%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

ICONNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.70u · ICON −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	13.5%	78.2%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	31.1%	75.4%	17.1%	—	49.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	26.6%	69.6%	56.6%	—	44.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	48.5%	35.8%	39.4%	—	42.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	60.3%	66.3%	38.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	1.7%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	44.2%	75.5%	45.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	24.6%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	54.4%	73.1%	47.4%	—	39.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	24.9%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	40.9%	80.4%	41.8%	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	45.3%	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	30.4%	66.1%	46.1%	—	43.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	41.1%	64.7%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	37.8%	73.2%	44.9%	—	46.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	45.8%	73.8%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	31.1%	77.8%	43.5%	0.0%	46.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	37.8%	78.6%	0.0%	—	46.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	36.3%	79.3%	39.6%	25.1%	41.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	47.6%	81.7%	41.6%	—	46.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	52.5%	84.9%	41.3%	0.0%	46.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	50.0%	87.2%	36.1%	—	34.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	46.0%	86.6%	31.9%	48.7%	40.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	63.7%	88.9%	37.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	74.4%	92.2%	44.2%	78.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	68.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	64.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	64.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	33%	61.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗