KDTW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

22%

19%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 17.9¢Risks 17.90u

EPSNO 82.1¢Risks 82.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +82.10u · EPS −82.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T10:33:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:25+00:00	15.0%	3.5%	27.3%	4.3%	13.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	15.0%	3.5%	27.3%	4.3%	13.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	15.0%	3.5%	27.3%	4.3%	13.2%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	15.0%	3.5%	27.3%	4.3%	13.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	15.0%	3.5%	27.3%	4.3%	13.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00	15.0%	3.5%	15.1%	4.3%	13.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	15.0%	3.8%	15.1%	4.3%	13.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00	15.0%	3.8%	15.1%	4.3%	13.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	17.2%	3.8%	15.1%	4.3%	13.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	17.3%	3.8%	15.2%	4.3%	13.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:19+00:00	17.3%	3.8%	15.2%	4.3%	13.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	15.2%	4.3%	13.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	22.2%	4.3%	13.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	22.2%	4.3%	13.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	22.2%	4.3%	13.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	22.2%	4.3%	13.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	12.4%	3.2%	22.2%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	12.4%	3.2%	22.2%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	12.4%	3.2%	22.2%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	12.4%	3.2%	22.2%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	12.4%	3.2%	24.1%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	12.4%	3.2%	24.1%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	12.4%	3.2%	24.1%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	12.4%	3.2%	24.1%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	19.7%	3.2%	24.1%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	19.7%	3.2%	24.1%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	19.7%	3.2%	24.1%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T04:15:59+00:00	19.7%	3.2%	24.1%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	19.7%	3.2%	30.0%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	19.7%	3.2%	30.0%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	19.7%	3.2%	30.0%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	19.7%	3.2%	30.0%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:33+00:00	19.8%	3.2%	30.0%	22.3%	10.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	19.8%	3.2%	30.0%	22.3%	10.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	19.8%	3.2%	30.0%	22.3%	10.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	19.8%	3.2%	30.0%	22.3%	10.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	19.8%	0.2%	24.9%	22.3%	10.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	19.8%	0.2%	24.9%	22.3%	10.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	19.8%	0.2%	24.9%	22.3%	10.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	19.8%	0.2%	24.9%	22.3%	10.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	19.3%	0.2%	24.9%	22.3%	10.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	19.3%	0.2%	24.9%	22.3%	10.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:34+00:00	19.3%	0.2%	24.9%	22.3%	10.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	19.3%	0.2%	24.9%	22.3%	10.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	19.3%	0.2%	26.3%	22.3%	10.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	19.3%	0.2%	26.3%	22.3%	10.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	19.3%	0.2%	26.3%	22.3%	10.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	24.3%	0.2%	26.3%	22.3%	21.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	24.3%	0.2%	26.3%	22.3%	21.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	24.3%	0.2%	26.3%	22.3%	21.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	24.3%	0.2%	26.3%	22.3%	21.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	24.3%	0.2%	26.3%	22.8%	21.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	24.3%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	24.3%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	24.3%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:50+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	13.7%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	21.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	22.1%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	19.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	22.1%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	19.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	22.1%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	19.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	22.1%	0.2%	35.6%	22.8%	19.3%
2026-10-14T10:33:24+00:00	22.1%	0.2%	35.6%	4.0%	19.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	36%	70.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1267
AIFS Single	22%	68.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0488
ICON	19%	67.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0372
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0024
IFS HRES	4%	62.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0016
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗