KDTW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

22%

19%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 17.9¢Risks 17.90u

EPSNO 82.1¢Risks 82.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +82.10u · EPS −82.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	6.5%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	0.4%	22.8%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.9%	18.4%	0.6%	—	5.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	1.1%	12.8%	6.9%	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	3.9%	1.8%	2.3%	—	2.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	6.2%	8.4%	1.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	0.0%	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	2.1%	11.6%	2.2%	—	1.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	3.1%	8.6%	2.1%	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	1.0%	11.0%	1.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.2%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.3%	3.8%	1.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.7%	3.0%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.4%	4.4%	0.7%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.6%	4.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.1%	4.5%	0.4%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.2%	4.0%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	3.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.3%	3.5%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.3%	3.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	3.7%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	2.8%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	2.7%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	3.2%	0.0%	0.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	3.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.9%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	4.1%	0.1%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	36%	70.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1267
AIFS Single	22%	68.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0488
ICON	19%	67.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0372
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0024
IFS HRES	4%	62.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0016
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗