KDTW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

47%

46%

30%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.4¢Risks 62.45u

ICONNO 37.6¢Risks 37.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.55u · ICON −37.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:50+00:00	83.2%	53.7%	92.6%	69.9%	64.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	83.2%	53.7%	92.6%	69.9%	64.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	83.2%	53.7%	92.6%	69.9%	64.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	83.2%	53.7%	92.6%	69.9%	64.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	83.2%	53.7%	92.6%	69.9%	64.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	83.2%	53.7%	92.6%	69.9%	64.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	88.6%	53.7%	92.6%	69.9%	77.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	88.6%	53.7%	92.6%	69.9%	77.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	88.6%	53.7%	92.6%	69.9%	77.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	88.6%	53.7%	92.6%	69.9%	77.4%
2026-10-14T10:33:25+00:00	88.6%	53.7%	92.6%	54.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	88.6%	31.8%	89.7%	54.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	88.6%	31.8%	89.7%	54.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	88.6%	31.8%	89.7%	54.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	81.7%	31.8%	89.7%	54.2%	77.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	81.8%	32.1%	89.3%	54.2%	77.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	80.8%	37.6%	85.8%	48.2%	69.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	80.8%	37.6%	85.8%	48.2%	69.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	80.8%	37.6%	84.3%	48.2%	69.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	80.8%	37.6%	84.3%	48.2%	69.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	80.8%	37.6%	84.3%	48.2%	69.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:48+00:00	87.0%	37.6%	84.3%	47.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	87.0%	37.6%	84.3%	47.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	87.0%	37.6%	84.3%	47.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	87.0%	37.6%	84.3%	47.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:57+00:00	87.0%	37.6%	84.3%	47.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	87.0%	37.6%	88.8%	47.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	87.0%	55.2%	88.8%	47.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00	87.0%	55.2%	88.8%	47.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:51+00:00	83.8%	55.2%	88.8%	47.2%	69.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	83.8%	55.2%	88.8%	47.2%	69.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00	83.8%	51.7%	88.8%	47.2%	69.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	83.8%	51.7%	88.8%	47.2%	69.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	83.8%	51.7%	90.1%	47.2%	69.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	83.8%	51.7%	90.1%	47.2%	69.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	83.8%	51.7%	90.1%	47.2%	69.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	83.8%	51.7%	90.1%	47.2%	69.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	85.7%	51.7%	90.1%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	85.7%	51.7%	90.1%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	85.7%	51.7%	90.1%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	85.7%	51.7%	90.1%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	85.7%	51.7%	89.3%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	85.7%	51.7%	89.3%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	85.7%	51.7%	89.3%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	83.8%	51.7%	89.3%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	83.8%	51.7%	89.3%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	83.8%	51.7%	89.3%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	83.8%	51.7%	89.3%	51.4%	61.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:05+00:00	80.6%	51.4%	84.3%	34.4%	24.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	80.6%	51.4%	85.7%	34.4%	24.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	80.6%	51.4%	85.7%	34.4%	24.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	80.6%	51.4%	85.7%	34.4%	24.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	80.6%	51.4%	85.7%	34.4%	24.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00	83.2%	51.4%	85.7%	27.9%	19.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	83.2%	51.4%	85.7%	27.9%	19.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	83.2%	51.4%	85.7%	27.9%	19.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	83.2%	51.4%	85.7%	27.9%	19.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	83.2%	40.3%	87.1%	27.9%	19.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	83.2%	40.3%	87.1%	27.9%	19.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	83.2%	40.3%	87.1%	27.9%	19.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	83.2%	40.3%	87.1%	27.9%	19.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	77.0%	40.5%	87.1%	27.9%	19.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	77.0%	40.5%	87.1%	27.9%	19.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	87.1%	27.9%	19.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	87.1%	27.9%	19.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	87.1%	27.9%	19.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	87.1%	27.9%	19.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	87.1%	27.9%	19.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	74.7%	37.4%	87.1%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	74.7%	37.4%	87.1%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	74.7%	37.4%	87.1%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	74.7%	37.4%	87.1%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	74.7%	37.4%	87.1%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	74.7%	37.4%	84.9%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	74.7%	37.4%	84.9%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	74.7%	37.4%	84.9%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	84.9%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	84.9%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	84.9%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	84.9%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:51+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	84.9%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	88.4%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	88.4%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	77.0%	37.4%	88.4%	27.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	79.2%	37.4%	88.4%	41.5%	37.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	79.2%	37.4%	88.4%	41.5%	37.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	79.2%	37.4%	88.4%	41.5%	37.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	79.2%	37.4%	88.4%	41.5%	37.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	79.2%	37.4%	88.4%	41.5%	37.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	79.2%	45.1%	90.4%	41.5%	37.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	79.2%	45.1%	90.4%	41.5%	37.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	79.2%	45.1%	90.4%	41.5%	37.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	75.3%	45.1%	90.4%	41.5%	37.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	75.4%	45.1%	90.4%	41.5%	38.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00	87.4%	46.3%	85.7%	46.8%	32.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	87.4%	46.3%	85.7%	46.8%	32.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	87.4%	46.3%	93.0%	46.8%	32.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	87.4%	46.3%	93.0%	46.8%	32.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	87.4%	46.3%	93.0%	46.8%	32.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	94.5%	46.3%	93.0%	46.8%	30.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	94.5%	46.3%	93.0%	46.8%	30.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	94.5%	46.3%	93.0%	46.8%	30.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	94.5%	46.3%	93.0%	46.8%	30.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	70.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	69.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	63.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗