KDTW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

47%

46%

30%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.4¢Risks 62.45u

ICONNO 37.6¢Risks 37.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.55u · ICON −37.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	67.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	62.2%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	5.8%	23.3%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	45.1%	50.7%	13.4%	—	47.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	62.3%	57.3%	32.3%	—	35.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	50.0%	66.3%	32.3%	—	30.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	53.2%	60.3%	36.7%	—	36.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	0.4%	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	41.7%	65.5%	39.3%	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	28.8%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	43.9%	61.3%	29.9%	—	42.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	46.4%	51.8%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	40.0%	55.5%	31.4%	—	36.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	37.0%	59.4%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	29.6%	64.3%	28.7%	—	33.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	24.9%	64.7%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	19.0%	61.2%	9.8%	0.0%	21.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	19.0%	63.5%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	22.1%	63.9%	19.8%	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	23.1%	64.3%	0.3%	—	12.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	21.5%	61.5%	7.2%	0.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	38.1%	59.5%	11.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	52.5%	63.4%	15.1%	55.0%	24.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	50.0%	55.1%	20.9%	—	21.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	44.6%	64.4%	22.0%	60.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	54.2%	72.4%	32.5%	—	40.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	55.8%	76.6%	33.1%	80.9%	41.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	77.6%	24.8%	—	21.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	70.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	69.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	63.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗