KDTW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

78%

64%

61%

41%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

EPSNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.70u · EPS −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:33+00:00	84.0%	49.0%	85.2%	55.6%	27.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	84.0%	49.0%	85.2%	55.6%	27.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	84.0%	49.0%	85.2%	55.6%	27.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	84.0%	49.0%	85.2%	55.6%	27.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	84.0%	38.9%	85.2%	55.6%	27.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	84.0%	38.9%	85.2%	55.6%	27.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	84.0%	38.9%	85.2%	55.6%	27.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	84.0%	38.9%	85.2%	55.6%	27.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	79.3%	38.9%	85.2%	55.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	79.3%	41.1%	85.2%	55.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:34+00:00	79.3%	41.1%	85.2%	55.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	79.3%	41.1%	85.2%	55.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	79.3%	41.1%	87.0%	55.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	79.3%	41.1%	87.0%	55.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	79.3%	41.1%	87.0%	55.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	84.0%	41.1%	87.0%	55.6%	61.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	84.0%	41.1%	87.0%	55.6%	61.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	84.0%	41.1%	87.0%	55.6%	61.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	84.0%	41.1%	87.0%	55.6%	61.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	84.0%	41.1%	87.0%	64.2%	61.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	84.0%	41.3%	89.3%	64.2%	61.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	84.0%	41.3%	89.3%	64.2%	61.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	84.0%	41.3%	89.3%	64.2%	61.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	78.3%	41.3%	89.3%	64.2%	61.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	78.3%	41.3%	89.3%	64.2%	61.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	72.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	68.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	61%	69.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	67.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	65.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗