KDTW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

78%

64%

61%

41%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

EPSNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.70u · EPS −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	61.8%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	55.8%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	4.0%	18.4%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	38.2%	43.7%	9.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	55.1%	50.0%	26.0%	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	42.4%	59.1%	25.8%	—	24.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	45.2%	52.4%	29.5%	—	29.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	0.2%	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	33.8%	57.5%	31.5%	—	35.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	22.0%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	35.4%	52.6%	22.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	37.6%	42.9%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	31.4%	46.3%	23.7%	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	28.4%	50.0%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	21.8%	54.9%	21.0%	—	25.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	17.7%	55.0%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	12.8%	51.0%	6.1%	0.0%	15.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	12.7%	53.2%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	14.9%	53.3%	13.1%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	15.4%	53.4%	0.1%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	14.0%	50.0%	4.0%	0.0%	9.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	27.3%	47.6%	6.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	40.1%	51.2%	8.9%	42.6%	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	37.3%	42.3%	12.8%	—	13.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	31.9%	51.3%	13.4%	47.3%	15.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	40.3%	59.7%	21.1%	—	27.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	41.4%	64.2%	21.2%	69.5%	28.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	64.8%	14.4%	—	12.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	72.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	68.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	61%	69.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	67.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	65.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗