KDTW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

65%

27%

24%

16%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

ICONNO 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.35u · ICON −55.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00	70.5%	15.4%	79.3%	42.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	70.5%	15.4%	79.3%	42.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	70.5%	15.4%	79.3%	42.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	70.5%	15.4%	75.4%	42.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	70.5%	15.4%	75.4%	42.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	70.5%	15.4%	75.4%	42.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	65.8%	15.4%	75.4%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	65.8%	15.4%	75.4%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	65.8%	15.4%	75.4%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	65.8%	15.4%	75.4%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	65.8%	15.4%	75.4%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	65.8%	15.4%	74.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	65.8%	15.4%	74.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	65.8%	15.4%	74.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	69.2%	15.4%	74.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	69.2%	15.4%	74.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	69.2%	15.4%	74.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	72.1%	21.4%	77.5%	37.8%	48.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	72.1%	21.4%	76.0%	37.8%	48.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	72.1%	21.4%	76.0%	37.8%	48.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	72.1%	21.4%	76.0%	37.8%	48.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	76.4%	21.4%	76.0%	37.8%	41.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	76.4%	21.4%	76.0%	37.8%	41.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	76.4%	21.4%	76.0%	37.8%	41.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	76.4%	21.4%	76.0%	37.8%	41.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	76.4%	21.4%	76.0%	37.8%	41.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	76.4%	29.5%	74.9%	37.8%	41.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	76.4%	29.5%	74.9%	37.8%	41.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	76.4%	29.5%	74.9%	37.8%	41.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:34+00:00	76.4%	29.5%	74.9%	38.2%	41.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	76.4%	29.5%	74.9%	38.2%	41.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	74.9%	38.2%	41.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	74.9%	38.2%	41.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	74.9%	38.2%	41.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	78.2%	38.2%	41.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	78.2%	38.2%	41.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	78.2%	38.2%	41.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	75.1%	28.2%	78.2%	38.2%	38.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	75.1%	28.2%	78.2%	38.2%	38.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	75.1%	28.2%	78.2%	38.2%	38.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	75.1%	28.2%	78.2%	38.2%	38.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	75.1%	28.2%	78.2%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:32+00:00	75.1%	28.2%	77.4%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	75.1%	28.2%	77.4%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	75.1%	28.2%	77.4%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	77.4%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	77.4%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	77.4%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	77.4%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	77.4%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	81.2%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	81.2%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	76.4%	28.2%	81.2%	37.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00	75.8%	28.2%	81.2%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	75.8%	28.2%	81.2%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	75.8%	28.2%	81.2%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	75.8%	28.2%	81.2%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	75.8%	28.2%	81.2%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	75.8%	23.8%	78.0%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	75.8%	23.8%	78.0%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	75.8%	23.8%	78.0%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	67.1%	23.8%	78.0%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	67.1%	24.5%	78.0%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:00	67.1%	24.9%	78.0%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	67.1%	24.9%	78.0%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	67.1%	24.9%	75.3%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	67.1%	24.9%	75.3%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	67.1%	24.9%	75.3%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	67.1%	24.9%	75.3%	31.1%	18.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	62.8%	24.9%	75.3%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	62.8%	24.9%	75.3%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	62.8%	24.9%	75.3%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	62.8%	24.9%	75.3%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	62.8%	24.9%	66.1%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	62.8%	24.9%	66.1%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	62.8%	24.9%	66.1%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	62.8%	24.9%	66.1%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	65.4%	24.9%	66.1%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	65.4%	24.9%	66.1%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	65.4%	24.9%	66.1%	19.8%	11.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	57.1%	23.9%	73.2%	22.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	57.1%	23.9%	73.2%	22.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	57.1%	23.9%	73.2%	22.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	57.1%	23.9%	62.1%	22.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	57.1%	23.9%	62.1%	22.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	57.1%	23.9%	62.1%	22.5%	19.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	58.1%	23.9%	62.1%	26.8%	15.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00	58.1%	23.9%	62.1%	26.8%	15.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	58.1%	23.9%	62.1%	26.8%	15.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	58.1%	23.9%	62.1%	26.8%	15.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	58.1%	23.9%	62.1%	26.8%	15.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	58.1%	23.9%	64.7%	26.8%	15.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	58.1%	23.9%	64.7%	26.8%	15.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	58.1%	23.9%	64.7%	26.8%	15.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	73.8%	23.9%	64.7%	26.8%	15.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	73.8%	23.9%	64.7%	26.8%	15.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	73.8%	23.9%	64.7%	26.8%	15.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	68.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	65.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	63.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗