KDTW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

65%

27%

24%

16%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

ICONNO 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.35u · ICON −55.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	55.6%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	49.4%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	2.8%	14.3%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	31.7%	36.9%	7.2%	—	33.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	47.8%	42.7%	20.4%	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	35.1%	51.5%	20.0%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	37.5%	44.4%	23.0%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	0.1%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	26.5%	49.2%	24.5%	—	27.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	16.2%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	27.7%	43.9%	16.7%	—	26.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	29.4%	34.2%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	23.7%	37.3%	17.2%	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	21.0%	40.6%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	15.3%	45.1%	14.7%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	11.9%	45.0%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	8.2%	40.8%	3.5%	0.0%	9.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	8.0%	42.6%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	9.4%	42.4%	8.1%	—	7.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	9.7%	42.2%	0.1%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	8.5%	38.5%	2.1%	0.0%	5.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	18.3%	35.9%	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	28.7%	38.9%	4.9%	30.9%	9.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	25.9%	30.2%	7.2%	—	7.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	21.0%	38.1%	7.4%	34.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	27.6%	45.8%	12.4%	—	17.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	28.0%	50.0%	12.2%	55.8%	17.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	50.0%	7.5%	—	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	68.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	65.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	63.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗