KDTW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 21 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

57%

30%

28%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 37.0¢Risks 37.00u

ICONNO 63.0¢Risks 63.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.00u · ICON −63.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T03:36:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:25+00:00	91.2%	44.9%	80.3%	55.6%	28.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	91.2%	31.9%	86.1%	55.6%	28.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	91.2%	31.9%	86.1%	55.6%	28.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	91.2%	31.9%	86.1%	55.6%	28.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	78.8%	31.9%	86.1%	55.6%	28.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	78.8%	31.9%	85.9%	55.6%	28.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	78.8%	36.2%	85.9%	55.6%	28.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	78.8%	36.2%	85.9%	55.6%	28.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	78.8%	36.2%	85.9%	55.6%	28.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	78.8%	36.2%	76.4%	55.6%	28.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	78.8%	36.2%	76.4%	55.6%	28.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	78.8%	36.2%	76.4%	55.6%	28.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	53.5%	36.2%	76.4%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	53.5%	36.2%	76.4%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	53.5%	36.2%	76.4%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	53.5%	36.2%	76.4%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	53.5%	36.2%	76.4%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	53.5%	36.2%	67.7%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	53.5%	36.2%	67.7%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	53.5%	36.2%	67.7%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	64.6%	36.2%	67.7%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	64.6%	36.2%	67.7%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	64.6%	36.2%	67.7%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	64.6%	36.2%	67.7%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	64.6%	36.2%	67.7%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	64.6%	36.2%	67.0%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	64.6%	36.2%	67.0%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	64.6%	36.2%	67.0%	19.7%	63.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:48+00:00	79.3%	36.2%	67.0%	26.7%	40.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	79.3%	36.2%	67.0%	26.7%	40.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	79.3%	36.2%	67.0%	26.7%	40.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	79.3%	36.2%	67.0%	26.7%	40.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:57+00:00	79.3%	36.2%	67.0%	26.7%	40.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	79.3%	36.2%	74.0%	26.7%	40.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	79.3%	25.2%	74.0%	26.7%	40.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00	79.3%	25.2%	74.0%	26.7%	40.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:51+00:00	67.9%	25.2%	74.0%	26.7%	40.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	67.9%	25.2%	74.0%	26.7%	40.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	69.2%	23.8%	70.4%	47.6%	57.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	69.2%	23.8%	74.0%	47.6%	57.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	69.2%	23.8%	74.0%	47.6%	57.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	69.2%	23.8%	74.0%	47.6%	57.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	71.4%	23.8%	74.0%	47.6%	53.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	71.4%	23.8%	74.0%	47.6%	53.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	71.4%	23.8%	74.0%	47.6%	53.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	71.4%	23.8%	74.0%	47.6%	53.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	71.4%	23.8%	74.0%	47.6%	53.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	71.4%	28.0%	76.0%	47.6%	53.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	71.4%	28.0%	76.0%	47.6%	53.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	71.4%	28.0%	76.0%	47.6%	53.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:34+00:00	64.2%	28.0%	76.0%	37.1%	53.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	64.2%	28.0%	76.0%	37.1%	53.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	64.2%	26.1%	76.0%	37.1%	53.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	64.2%	26.1%	76.0%	37.1%	53.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	64.2%	26.1%	76.0%	37.1%	53.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	64.2%	26.1%	74.4%	37.1%	53.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	64.2%	26.1%	74.4%	37.1%	53.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	64.2%	26.1%	74.4%	37.1%	53.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	58.8%	26.1%	74.4%	37.1%	30.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	58.8%	26.1%	74.4%	37.1%	30.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	58.8%	26.1%	74.4%	37.1%	30.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	58.8%	26.1%	74.4%	37.1%	30.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	58.8%	26.1%	74.4%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:32+00:00	58.8%	26.1%	75.2%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	58.8%	26.1%	75.2%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	58.8%	26.1%	75.2%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	61.1%	26.1%	75.2%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	61.1%	26.1%	75.2%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	61.1%	26.1%	75.2%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	61.1%	26.1%	75.2%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00	61.1%	26.1%	75.2%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	61.1%	26.1%	72.0%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	61.1%	26.1%	72.0%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	61.1%	26.1%	72.0%	43.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00	62.0%	26.1%	72.0%	35.2%	22.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	62.0%	26.1%	72.0%	35.2%	22.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	62.0%	26.1%	72.0%	35.2%	22.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	62.0%	26.1%	72.0%	35.2%	22.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	62.0%	26.1%	72.0%	35.2%	22.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	62.0%	25.2%	68.6%	35.2%	22.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	62.0%	25.2%	68.6%	35.2%	22.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	62.0%	25.2%	68.6%	35.2%	22.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	51.7%	25.2%	68.6%	35.2%	22.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	51.7%	25.2%	68.5%	35.2%	22.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:05+00:00	53.5%	26.4%	55.3%	31.6%	8.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	53.5%	26.4%	57.4%	31.6%	8.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	53.5%	26.4%	57.4%	31.6%	8.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	53.5%	26.4%	57.4%	31.6%	8.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	53.5%	26.4%	57.4%	31.6%	8.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00	53.7%	26.4%	57.4%	28.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	53.7%	26.4%	57.4%	28.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	53.7%	26.4%	57.4%	28.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	53.7%	26.4%	57.4%	28.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	53.7%	15.0%	59.4%	28.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	53.7%	15.0%	59.4%	28.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	53.7%	15.0%	59.4%	28.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	53.7%	15.0%	59.4%	28.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	49.1%	15.9%	59.4%	28.0%	10.1%
2026-10-20T15:31:59+00:00	66.8%	30.0%	66.0%	26.8%	14.1%
2026-10-20T16:17:59+00:00	66.8%	30.0%	66.0%	26.8%	14.1%
2026-10-20T17:03:23+00:00	62.0%	30.0%	63.4%	26.8%	14.1%
2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00	62.0%	30.0%	63.4%	26.8%	14.1%
2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00	62.0%	30.0%	63.4%	26.8%	14.1%
2026-10-20T19:18:55+00:00	62.0%	30.0%	63.4%	26.8%	14.1%
2026-10-20T20:04:09+00:00	62.0%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%
2026-10-20T20:49:25+00:00	62.0%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%
2026-10-20T21:34:33+00:00	62.0%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%
2026-10-20T22:19:40+00:00	62.0%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%
2026-10-20T23:04:47+00:00	57.1%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%
2026-10-20T23:50:04+00:00	57.1%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%
2026-10-21T00:35:14+00:00	57.1%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%
2026-10-21T01:20:47+00:00	57.1%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%
2026-10-21T02:06:16+00:00	57.1%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%
2026-10-21T02:51:42+00:00	57.1%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%
2026-10-21T03:36:55+00:00	57.1%	30.0%	63.4%	27.7%	10.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	68.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	68.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	65.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	65.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
National Blend	17%	66.0°F	1.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	63.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗