KDTW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 21 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

57%

30%

28%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 37.0¢Risks 37.00u

ICONNO 63.0¢Risks 63.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.00u · ICON −63.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	17.3%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	33.0%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	4.2%	50.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	42.3%	43.7%	19.4%	—	19.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	16.5%	25.4%	18.4%	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	33.0%	19.5%	33.7%	—	27.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	33.0%	35.9%	31.6%	—	20.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	1.0%	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	11.6%	25.1%	27.9%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	5.6%	37.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	11.8%	38.8%	20.8%	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	6.3%	34.2%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	2.5%	34.7%	7.0%	—	15.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	4.2%	32.6%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	7.9%	32.1%	6.2%	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	12.4%	41.1%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	8.2%	34.0%	1.6%	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	15.6%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	20.6%	39.2%	1.5%	—	9.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	22.3%	36.7%	0.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	14.7%	39.6%	4.2%	0.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	19.1%	46.4%	5.8%	—	10.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	20.8%	50.0%	7.5%	41.3%	12.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	47.4%	5.6%	—	8.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	14.1%	46.0%	4.3%	0.0%	9.5%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	20.1%	48.6%	5.8%	—	10.4%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	29.3%	50.0%	5.5%	35.8%	10.8%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	28.5%	45.5%	3.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	42.1%	—	26.3%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	68.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	68.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	65.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	65.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
National Blend	17%	66.0°F	1.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	63.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗