KDTW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

45%

25%

16%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.1¢Risks 25.15u

ICONNO 74.8¢Risks 74.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.85u · ICON −74.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	13.8%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	4.2%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	27.3%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	2.9%	43.3%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	35.6%	36.9%	14.9%	—	15.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	12.4%	19.9%	14.0%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	26.4%	14.6%	27.0%	—	21.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	26.1%	28.8%	24.8%	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	0.6%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	8.0%	18.9%	21.3%	—	19.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	3.6%	29.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	8.0%	30.7%	15.1%	—	17.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	3.9%	26.4%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	1.4%	26.6%	4.3%	—	10.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	2.4%	24.6%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	4.9%	24.0%	3.8%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	8.0%	31.7%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	4.9%	25.1%	0.8%	—	4.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	10.1%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	13.7%	29.2%	0.7%	—	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	14.8%	26.7%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	9.0%	28.9%	2.2%	0.0%	5.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	11.9%	34.7%	3.1%	—	6.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	13.0%	37.7%	4.0%	29.8%	7.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	34.9%	2.8%	—	4.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	67.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	68.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	65.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	65.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	60.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗