KDTW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

45%

21%

13%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 29.8¢Risks 29.85u

EPSNO 70.2¢Risks 70.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +70.15u · EPS −70.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	6.5%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	6.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	0.9%	19.4%	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	33.0%	29.2%	7.4%	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	12.0%	29.1%	8.7%	—	11.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	9.7%	18.9%	11.8%	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	3.3%	38.2%	14.0%	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	26.3%	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	2.3%	33.0%	10.4%	—	6.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	2.7%	21.4%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	2.8%	22.1%	5.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	3.9%	46.4%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	2.8%	36.4%	2.5%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	15.4%	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	15.3%	38.5%	7.9%	—	4.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	14.6%	29.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	16.3%	33.0%	5.8%	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	20.5%	34.5%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	10.9%	34.1%	7.7%	39.2%	4.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	—	31.5%	0.0%	—	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	70.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	70.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	65.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	13%	63.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	66.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗