KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

73%

45%

40%

18%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

HRESNO 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.35u · HRES −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:05+00:00	56.6%	44.3%	65.8%	27.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	56.6%	44.3%	67.3%	27.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	56.6%	44.3%	67.3%	27.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	56.6%	44.3%	67.3%	27.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	56.6%	44.3%	67.3%	27.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00	67.2%	44.3%	67.3%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	67.2%	44.3%	67.3%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	67.2%	44.3%	67.3%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	67.2%	44.3%	67.3%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	67.2%	44.3%	66.0%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	67.2%	44.3%	66.0%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	67.2%	44.3%	66.0%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	67.2%	44.3%	66.0%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	53.2%	44.3%	66.0%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	53.2%	44.3%	66.0%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	53.2%	39.9%	66.0%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	53.2%	39.9%	66.0%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	53.2%	39.9%	60.6%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	53.2%	39.9%	60.6%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	53.2%	39.9%	60.6%	3.5%	33.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	68.6%	39.9%	60.6%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	68.6%	39.9%	60.6%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	68.6%	39.9%	60.6%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	68.6%	39.9%	60.6%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	68.6%	39.9%	60.6%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	68.6%	39.9%	72.8%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	68.6%	39.9%	72.8%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	68.6%	39.9%	72.8%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	77.3%	39.9%	72.8%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	77.3%	39.9%	72.8%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	77.3%	39.9%	72.8%	18.0%	44.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	77.3%	39.9%	72.8%	18.0%	44.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	69.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	45%	64.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	64.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	60.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗