KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

73%

45%

40%

18%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

HRESNO 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.35u · HRES −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	1.0%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	6.3%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	10.1%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	3.2%	63.3%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	16.2%	79.6%	35.6%	—	39.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	26.6%	64.3%	47.8%	—	22.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	2.8%	71.1%	12.2%	—	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	68.1%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	14.0%	68.4%	15.4%	—	11.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	1.9%	54.9%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	23.2%	62.3%	20.1%	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	10.3%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	12.7%	59.6%	4.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	10.8%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	6.3%	67.0%	4.8%	—	1.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	13.7%	55.7%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	5.6%	57.7%	14.2%	53.9%	7.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	54.0%	—	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	69.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	45%	64.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	64.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	60.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗